Fram Reykjavik 2–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Fram Reykjavik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

J. Bystrom 28'

F. Sigurdsson 18'

6/29/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 13Lambhagavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fram Reykjavik55%

×Draw21%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fram ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.31

Fram Reykjavik

2.09

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.31

Fram Reykjavik creates 60% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

2.19

creates per match

1.32

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fram Reykjavik

2.19

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.32

allows per match

Fram Reykjavik

1.29

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fram Reykjavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fram Reykjavik or draw

76%

Fram Reykjavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

79%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

45%

Winning margin

Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+

33%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals

88%

Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals

62%

Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals

34%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

73%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

38%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)

70%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fram Reykjavik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fram Reykjavik attack 2.19 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.32 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fram Reykjavik scores more

55%

level

21%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

24%

Fram Reykjavik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

F. Sigurdsson

26'

H. Ragnarsson

28'

J. Bystrom

46'

B. Baxter← B. Gunnarsson

52'

Fred Saraiva

62'

M. Thordarson← J. Bystrom

62'

V. Thorvardarson← V. Valor

62'

B. Hlynsson← A. Kristinsson

71'

T. Geirsson← F. Sigurdsson

71'

N. Nokkvason← A. Hilmarsson

83'

S. Runarsson

84'

N. NokkvasonGoal Disallowed - handball

85'

O. Hlynsson← V. Dimitrijevic

90'

T. H. Bergmann← H. Ragnarsson

Fram

IBV

1

Zapytowsk

23

▼

2

26

6

44

25

▼

Hilmarsso

8

▼

Gunnarsso

10

Hjalteste

30

▼

Valor

24

▼

22

26

16

3

25

⚽

▼

19

10

23

29

▼

Dimitrije

15

⚽

▼

Bystrom

12

Tibbling

Manager: Rúnar Kristinsson

62'▲M. Thordarson←▼J. Bystrom

71'▲T. Geirsson←▼F. Sigurdsson

85'▲O. Hlynsson←▼V. Dimitrijevic

Fram Reykjavik substitutes

1Arnaldarson4Adalsteinsson6Geirsson11Thordarson17Arnarson18Bjarkason21Hlynsson32Andrason33Pauzuolis

Manager: Þorlákur Már Arnason

46'▲B. Baxter←▼B. Gunnarsson

62'▲V. Thorvardarson←▼V. Valor

62'▲B. Hlynsson←▼A. Kristinsson

71'▲N. Nokkvason←▼A. Hilmarsson

90'▲T. H. Bergmann←▼H. Ragnarsson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

31Arnarsson4Nokkvason5Edeland11Thorvardarson21Hlynsson45Baxter77Bergmann

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Fram Reykjavik beat IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-0 in Úrvalsdeild on June 29, 2025.

Goals: F. Sigurdsson (18'), J. Bystrom (28').

The match was played at Lambhagavöllurinn in Reykjavík.

Fram Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fram Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar