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ÍBU vs Reynir — Cup 2019

ÍBU
ÍBU
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Reynir
Reynir
4/21/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ÍBU30%
×Draw17%
Reynir53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÍBU
2.52
Reynir
3.33

Reynir creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

ÍBU
2.75
Reynir
3.40

allows per match

ÍBU
3.25
Reynir
2.30

finishing

ÍBU+0.00on par
Reynir+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍBU ↓

Reynir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

ÍBU or draw
47%
ÍBU or Reynir
83%
Draw or Reynir
70%

Winning margin

ÍBU wins by 2+
16%
Reynir wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

ÍBU 1+ goals
92%
ÍBU 2+ goals
71%
ÍBU 3+ goals
45%
Reynir 1+ goals
96%
Reynir 2+ goals
84%
Reynir 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

ÍBU (draw refunded)
36%
Reynir (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÍBU at home — creates 2.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Reynir away — creates 3.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÍBU attack 2.75 + Reynir defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.52

Reynir attack 3.40 + ÍBU defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ÍBU scores more
30%
level
17%
Reynir scores more
53%

Reynir at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ÍBU 0 – 4 Reynir

Reynir beat ÍBU 4-0 in Cup on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.