ÍBU 4–3 KÁ Hafnarfjördur: Result & Stats | Cup

ÍBU

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

4/8/2023

Cup · 2nd RoundJÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ÍBU49%

×Draw18%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÍBUExpected goals in this matchKÁ Hafnarfjördur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

2.63

ÍBU

3.16

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

2.63

ÍBU creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.75

creates per match

2.00

3.25

allows per match

3.57

creates per match

ÍBU

2.75

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

2.00

allows per match

ÍBU

3.25

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

3.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ÍBU+0.00on par

KÁ Hafnarfjördur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÍBU ↓

KÁ Hafnarfjördur →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

ÍBU or draw

67%

ÍBU or KÁ Hafnarfjördur

82%

Draw or KÁ Hafnarfjördur

51%

Winning margin

ÍBU wins by 2+

31%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ÍBU 1+ goals

96%

ÍBU 2+ goals

82%

ÍBU 3+ goals

59%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur 1+ goals

93%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur 2+ goals

73%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

ÍBU (draw refunded)

59%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

ÍBU at home — creates 2.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

KÁ Hafnarfjördur away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

ÍBU attack 2.75 + KÁ Hafnarfjördur defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 3.16

KÁ Hafnarfjördur attack 2.00 + ÍBU defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

ÍBU scores more

49%

level

18%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur scores more

33%

ÍBU at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ÍBU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff