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Ibri vs Bahla — Professional League 2019

Ibri
Ibri
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bahla
Bahla
12/14/2025Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ibri28%
×Draw28%
Bahla44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibri
0.99
Bahla
1.32

Bahla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 80 away

creates per match

Ibri
0.86
Bahla
1.02

allows per match

Ibri
1.63
Bahla
1.11

finishing

Ibri+0.00on par
Bahla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibri ↓

Bahla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ibri or draw
56%
Ibri or Bahla
72%
Draw or Bahla
72%

Winning margin

Ibri wins by 2+
10%
Bahla wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ibri 1+ goals
63%
Ibri 2+ goals
26%
Ibri 3+ goals
8%
Bahla 1+ goals
73%
Bahla 2+ goals
38%
Bahla 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ibri (draw refunded)
39%
Bahla (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibri at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

Bahla away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibri attack 0.86 + Bahla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bahla attack 1.02 + Ibri defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ibri scores more
28%
level
28%
Bahla scores more
44%

Bahla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bahla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Ibri 2–3 Bahla

Bahla beat Ibri 3-2 in Professional League on December 14, 2025.