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Ibri vs Al Seeb — Professional League 2019

Ibri
Ibri
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Seeb
Al Seeb
1/24/2025Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 12Ibri Youth Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ibri15%
×Draw23%
Al Seeb61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibri
0.71
Al Seeb
1.71

Al Seeb creates 141% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ibri
0.86
Al Seeb
1.80

allows per match

Ibri
1.63
Al Seeb
0.56

finishing

Ibri+0.00on par
Al Seeb+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibri ↓

Al Seeb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ibri or draw
39%
Ibri or Al Seeb
77%
Draw or Al Seeb
85%

Winning margin

Ibri wins by 2+
4%
Al Seeb wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ibri 1+ goals
51%
Ibri 2+ goals
16%
Ibri 3+ goals
4%
Al Seeb 1+ goals
82%
Al Seeb 2+ goals
51%
Al Seeb 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ibri (draw refunded)
20%
Al Seeb (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibri at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

Al Seeb away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.56 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibri attack 0.86 + Al Seeb defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.71

Al Seeb attack 1.80 + Ibri defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ibri scores more
15%
level
23%
Al Seeb scores more
61%

Al Seeb at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Seeb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Ibri 0–2 Al Seeb

Al Seeb beat Ibri 2-0 in Professional League on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Ibri Youth Complex in Ibri.