Ibrachina U20 2–1 XV de Piracicaba U20

Ibrachina U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

XV de Piracicaba U20

Unknown 20', 2'

Unknown 84'

5/23/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ibrachina U2058%

×Draw21%

XV de Piracicaba U2021%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibrachina U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Piracicaba U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.15

Ibrachina U20

2.05

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.15

Ibrachina U20 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

2.76

creates per match

1.25

1.04

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ibrachina U20

2.76

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

allows per match

Ibrachina U20

1.04

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

XV de Piracicaba U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw

79%

Ibrachina U20 or XV de Piracicaba U20

79%

Draw or XV de Piracicaba U20

42%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

35%

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

87%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

61%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

33%

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

68%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

32%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

73%

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

XV de Piracicaba U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.05

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more

58%

level

21%

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

21%

Ibrachina U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

20'

84'

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff