Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ibrachina U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
Marcus 70', 34'
Isaque 50'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ibrachina U2058%
×Draw21%
Portuguesa U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibrachina U20
2.07
Portuguesa U20
1.18

Ibrachina U20 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ibrachina U20
2.76
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

Ibrachina U20
1.04
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw
79%
Ibrachina U20 or Portuguesa U20
79%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
42%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
35%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
87%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
61%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
34%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
69%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
33%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.07

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more
58%
level
21%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
21%

Ibrachina U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Marcus
50'
Isaque
70'
Marcus
82'
L. Fernando Rodrigues Pedrosa
85'
R. Luiz Rossoni
90'
Cicero Simplicio de Andrade Neto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ibrachina U20 3–0 Portuguesa U20

Ibrachina U20 beat Portuguesa U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: Marcus (34', 70'), Isaque (50').

The match was played at Ibrachina Arena in São Paulo, São Paulo.