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Ibrachina U20 vs Palmeiras U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
Unknown 63', 55'
Riquelme Fillipi 27'
5/25/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ibrachina U2042%
×Draw23%
Palmeiras U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibrachina U20
1.75
Palmeiras U20
1.59

Ibrachina U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ibrachina U20
2.76
Palmeiras U20
2.15

allows per match

Ibrachina U20
1.04
Palmeiras U20
0.74

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par
Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw
65%
Ibrachina U20 or Palmeiras U20
77%
Draw or Palmeiras U20
58%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
22%
Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
83%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
52%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
25%
Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
80%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
47%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more
42%
level
23%
Palmeiras U20 scores more
35%

Ibrachina U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Riquelme Fillipi
55'
63'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ibrachina U20 vs Palmeiras U20

Palmeiras U20 beat Ibrachina U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: Riquelme Fillipi (27'), ? (55', 63').

The match was played at Ibrachina Arena in São Paulo, São Paulo.