Ibrachina U20 3–0 Mauá U20: Result & Stats

Ibrachina U20

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mauá U20

M. Gabriel 45+3'

Maurinho 21', 12'

7/25/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ibrachina U2070%

×Draw18%

Mauá U2012%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibrachina U20Expected goals in this matchMauá U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.82

Ibrachina U20

2.27

Mauá U20

0.82

Ibrachina U20 creates 177% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

2.76

creates per match

0.61

1.04

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Ibrachina U20

2.76

Mauá U20

0.61

allows per match

Ibrachina U20

1.04

Mauá U20

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw

88%

Ibrachina U20 or Mauá U20

82%

Draw or Mauá U20

30%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

46%

Mauá U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

90%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

66%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

39%

Mauá U20 1+ goals

56%

Mauá U20 2+ goals

20%

Mauá U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

85%

Mauá U20 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.27

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more

70%

level

18%

Mauá U20 scores more

12%

Ibrachina U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Maurinho

21'

Maurinho

45+3'

M. Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff