Ibrachina U20 2–2 Jose Bonifacio EC U20

Ibrachina U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

L. Silva 47'

Vini Reis 15'

Nathan 41'

C. de Melo 31'

9/13/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 6Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ibrachina U2056%

×Draw20%

Jose Bonifacio EC U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibrachina U20Expected goals in this matchJose Bonifacio EC U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.39

Ibrachina U20

2.20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.39

Ibrachina U20 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

2.76

creates per match

1.73

1.04

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ibrachina U20

2.76

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

allows per match

Ibrachina U20

1.04

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw

76%

Ibrachina U20 or Jose Bonifacio EC U20

80%

Draw or Jose Bonifacio EC U20

44%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

34%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

89%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

64%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

37%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

75%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

40%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more

56%

level

20%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

24%

Ibrachina U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Vini Reis

31'

C. de Melo

41'

Nathan

47'

L. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff