Ibrachina U20 0–2 Guarani U20: Result & Stats

Ibrachina U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Guarani U20

Unknown 46', 22'

8/9/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 6Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ibrachina U2050%

×Draw23%

Guarani U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibrachina U20Expected goals in this matchGuarani U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.25

Ibrachina U20

1.79

Guarani U20

1.25

Ibrachina U20 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

2.76

creates per match

1.45

1.04

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Ibrachina U20

2.76

Guarani U20

1.45

allows per match

Ibrachina U20

1.04

Guarani U20

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw

73%

Ibrachina U20 or Guarani U20

77%

Draw or Guarani U20

50%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

27%

Guarani U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

83%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

53%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

26%

Guarani U20 1+ goals

71%

Guarani U20 2+ goals

36%

Guarani U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more

50%

level

23%

Guarani U20 scores more

27%

Ibrachina U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

46'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff