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Ibrachina U20 vs AC Guaratinguetá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AC Guaratinguetá U20
AC Guaratinguetá U20
Maurinho 53'
Bruno Guilherme 45+2'
5/2/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ibrachina U2072%
×Draw17%
AC Guaratinguetá U2011%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibrachina U20
2.32
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.77

Ibrachina U20 creates 201% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ibrachina U20
2.76
AC Guaratinguetá U20
0.50

allows per match

Ibrachina U20
1.04
AC Guaratinguetá U20
1.88

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par
AC Guaratinguetá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

AC Guaratinguetá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw
89%
Ibrachina U20 or AC Guaratinguetá U20
83%
Draw or AC Guaratinguetá U20
28%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
48%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
90%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
67%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
40%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 1+ goals
54%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 2+ goals
18%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
87%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

AC Guaratinguetá U20 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + AC Guaratinguetá U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.32

AC Guaratinguetá U20 attack 0.50 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more
72%
level
17%
AC Guaratinguetá U20 scores more
11%

Ibrachina U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Leo Simples
45+2'
Bruno Guilherme
53'
Maurinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ibrachina U20 2–0 AC Guaratinguetá U20

Ibrachina U20 beat AC Guaratinguetá U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 2, 2025.

Goals: Bruno Guilherme (45+2'), Maurinho (53').

The match was played at Ibrachina Arena in São Paulo, São Paulo.