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Ibiza vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
3/11/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ibiza45%
×Draw27%
Villarreal II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.42
Villarreal II
1.07

Ibiza creates 33% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.21
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Ibiza
1.33
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
72%
Ibiza or Villarreal II
73%
Draw or Villarreal II
55%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
22%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
76%
Ibiza 2+ goals
41%
Ibiza 3+ goals
17%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
66%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
29%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
61%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.21 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Ibiza defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ibiza scores more
45%
level
27%
Villarreal II scores more
28%

Ibiza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Ibiza 0–0 Villarreal II

Ibiza and Villarreal II drew 0-0 in Segunda División on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic in Ibiza.