Ibiza 1–0 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Ibiza

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tarazona

F. Castillo 63'

3/1/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadi Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ibiza56%

×Draw26%

Tarazona18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbizaExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.71

Ibiza

1.48

Tarazona

0.71

Ibiza creates 108% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

1.65

creates per match

0.56

0.86

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ibiza

1.65

Tarazona

0.56

allows per match

Ibiza

0.86

Tarazona

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw

82%

Ibiza or Tarazona

74%

Draw or Tarazona

44%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+

29%

Tarazona wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals

77%

Ibiza 2+ goals

43%

Ibiza 3+ goals

19%

Tarazona 1+ goals

51%

Tarazona 2+ goals

16%

Tarazona 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)

76%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Tarazona defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tarazona attack 0.56 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ibiza scores more

56%

level

26%

Tarazona scores more

18%

Ibiza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

I. Incera

59'

Vaquero

61'

A. Jimenez← S. Armero

62'

G. Nsukula← Davo

62'

M. Svensson← Bebe

63'

74'

77'

82'

87'

D. Soto← Vaquero

87'

D. Cubillas← A. Borge

90'

J. Eslava← F. Castillo

Ibiza

Tarazona

13

16

4

3

21

▼

Nieto

14

▼

Borge

23

Rodriguez

6

Carrasco

22

▼

Vaquero

10

Aguero

19

▼

1

17

16

5

22

28

11

⚽

▼

Castillo

12

Garcia

24

Valls

7

▼

Bebe

9

▼

Davo

Manager: Miguel Alvarez

62'▲G. Nsukula←▼Davo

62'▲M. Svensson←▼Bebe

90'▲J. Eslava←▼F. Castillo

Ibiza substitutes

13Paradowski25Torrelavid2Diez21Kembo3Albert6Pozo14Nsukula10Svensson19Eslava

Manager: Barrero Juanma

61'▲A. Jimenez←▼S. Armero

77'▲B. Traore←▼C. Nieto

87'▲D. Soto←▼Vaquero

87'▲D. Cubillas←▼A. Borge

Tarazona substitutes

1Josele5Traore20Martinez7Soto9Cubillas17Jimenez