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Ibiza vs Recreativo Huelva — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
10/15/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ibiza53%
×Draw26%
Recreativo Huelva21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.52
Recreativo Huelva
0.86

Ibiza creates 77% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Recreativo Huelva
0.87

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Recreativo Huelva
1.39

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
79%
Ibiza or Recreativo Huelva
74%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
47%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
27%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
78%
Ibiza 2+ goals
45%
Ibiza 3+ goals
20%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
58%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
21%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
71%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ibiza scores more
53%
level
26%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
21%

Ibiza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Ibiza 5–2 Recreativo Huelva

Ibiza beat Recreativo Huelva 5-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic in Ibiza.