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Ibiza vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
10/1/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ibiza53%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.73
Linares Deportivo
1.05

Ibiza creates 65% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
77%
Ibiza or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
47%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
29%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
82%
Ibiza 2+ goals
52%
Ibiza 3+ goals
25%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
70%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ibiza scores more
53%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
23%

Ibiza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Ibiza 4–1 Linares Deportivo

Ibiza beat Linares Deportivo 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic in Ibiza.