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Ibiza vs Langreo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Langreo
Langreo
1/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ibiza59%
×Draw25%
Langreo16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.56
Langreo
0.68

Ibiza creates 129% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.71
Langreo
0.78

allows per match

Ibiza
0.57
Langreo
1.41

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Langreo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
84%
Ibiza or Langreo
75%
Draw or Langreo
41%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
31%
Langreo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
79%
Ibiza 2+ goals
46%
Ibiza 3+ goals
21%
Langreo 1+ goals
49%
Langreo 2+ goals
15%
Langreo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
78%
Langreo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.71 + Langreo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Langreo attack 0.78 + Ibiza defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ibiza scores more
59%
level
25%
Langreo scores more
16%

Ibiza at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ibiza vs Langreo

Ibiza and Langreo drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.