Ibiza 1–1 Hércules: Result & Stats

Ibiza

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hércules

9/15/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ibiza53%

×Draw25%

Hércules22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbizaExpected goals in this matchHércules

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.91

Ibiza

1.59

Hércules

0.91

Ibiza creates 75% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

0.86

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Ibiza

1.65

Hércules

0.95

allows per match

Ibiza

0.86

Hércules

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par

Hércules+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Hércules →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw

78%

Ibiza or Hércules

75%

Draw or Hércules

47%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+

28%

Hércules wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals

80%

Ibiza 2+ goals

47%

Ibiza 3+ goals

21%

Hércules 1+ goals

60%

Hércules 2+ goals

23%

Hércules 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)

71%

Hércules (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Hércules away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Hércules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hércules attack 0.95 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ibiza scores more

53%

level

25%

Hércules scores more

22%

Ibiza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff