Ibiza 1–0 Granada II: Result & Stats

Ibiza

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granada II

2/4/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ibiza61%

×Draw23%

Granada II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbizaExpected goals in this matchGranada II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.74

Ibiza

1.72

Granada II

0.74

Ibiza creates 132% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.65

creates per match

0.63

0.86

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ibiza

1.65

Granada II

0.63

allows per match

Ibiza

0.86

Granada II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par

Granada II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Granada II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw

84%

Ibiza or Granada II

77%

Draw or Granada II

39%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+

34%

Granada II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals

82%

Ibiza 2+ goals

51%

Ibiza 3+ goals

25%

Granada II 1+ goals

52%

Granada II 2+ goals

17%

Granada II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)

79%

Granada II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Granada II away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Granada II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Granada II attack 0.63 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ibiza scores more

61%

level

23%

Granada II scores more

16%

Ibiza at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff