Ibiza 1–0 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Ibiza

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Getafe II

11/17/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ibiza60%

×Draw24%

Getafe II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbizaExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.71

Ibiza

1.64

Getafe II

0.71

Ibiza creates 131% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

0.86

0.57

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Ibiza

1.71

Getafe II

0.86

allows per match

Ibiza

0.57

Getafe II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw

84%

Ibiza or Getafe II

76%

Draw or Getafe II

40%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+

33%

Getafe II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals

81%

Ibiza 2+ goals

49%

Ibiza 3+ goals

23%

Getafe II 1+ goals

51%

Getafe II 2+ goals

16%

Getafe II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)

79%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.71 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Getafe II attack 0.86 + Ibiza defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ibiza scores more

60%

level

24%

Getafe II scores more

16%

Ibiza at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff