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Ibiza vs Castellón — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Castellón
Castellón
11/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ibiza48%
×Draw27%
Castellón26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.45
Castellón
0.99

Ibiza creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Castellón
1.11

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Castellón
1.25

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Castellón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
74%
Ibiza or Castellón
73%
Draw or Castellón
52%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
24%
Castellón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
77%
Ibiza 2+ goals
42%
Ibiza 3+ goals
18%
Castellón 1+ goals
63%
Castellón 2+ goals
26%
Castellón 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
65%
Castellón (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.45

Castellón attack 1.11 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ibiza scores more
48%
level
27%
Castellón scores more
26%

Ibiza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ibiza vs Castellón

Ibiza beat Castellón 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic in Ibiza.