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Ibiza vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ibiza
Ibiza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
4/21/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ibiza47%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza
1.46
Atlético Madrid II
1.02

Ibiza creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ibiza
1.65
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Ibiza
0.86
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Ibiza+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza or draw
74%
Ibiza or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
53%

Winning margin

Ibiza wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ibiza 1+ goals
77%
Ibiza 2+ goals
43%
Ibiza 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ibiza (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza attack 1.65 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Ibiza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ibiza scores more
47%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
26%

Ibiza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ibiza 0 – 1 Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Ibiza 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Can Misses – Power Electronic in Ibiza.