Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Collerense: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Collerense

Cristian Terán 57'

Solano 44'

10/5/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 7Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas67%

×Draw20%

Collerense12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchCollerense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.72

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.01

Collerense

0.72

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 179% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 113 away

2.14

creates per match

1.00

0.44

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Collerense

1.00

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Collerense

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Collerense →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

88%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Collerense

80%

Draw or Collerense

33%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

42%

Collerense wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

59%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

32%

Collerense 1+ goals

51%

Collerense 2+ goals

16%

Collerense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

84%

Collerense (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.01

Collerense attack 1.00 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

67%

level

20%

Collerense scores more

12%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Solano

57'

Cristian Terán

70'

Kike Fajarnes← Colau

71'

Gabri Reus← Sergi Garcés

76'

Gorka Ramón← Solano

78'

Sergi Piña← José Arias

80'

Miquel Fuster← Jose Custodio

84'

Javi González← Marc Nieto

Ibiza

Collerense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Solano

Riera

▼

Arias

Manager: José Pérez

70'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼Colau

76'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Solano

78'▲Sergi Piña←▼José Arias

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FajarnesRamónPiña

Manager: Miguel Espadas

71'▲Gabri Reus←▼Sergi Garcés

80'▲Miquel Fuster←▼Jose Custodio

84'▲Javi González←▼Marc Nieto

Collerense substitutes

ReusFusterGonzález

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Collerense

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Collerense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 5, 2019.

Goals: Solano (44'), Cristian Terán (57').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Collerense