Collerense 0–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Collerense

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

S. Balalarabe 72', 4'

2/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 26Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Collerense21%

×Draw24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CollerenseExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.66

Collerense

0.93

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.66

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 78% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 44 away

1.26

creates per match

2.00

1.31

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Collerense

1.26

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Collerense

1.31

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Collerense or draw

46%

Collerense or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

79%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals

61%

Collerense 2+ goals

24%

Collerense 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

49%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)

28%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.93

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Collerense scores more

21%

level

24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

54%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

S. Balalarabe

16'

Sergi Garcés← T. Flores

70'

Sergio Sanz← Jose Custodio

72'

Gorka Ramón← Onofre Riera

72'

S. Balalarabe

76'

F. Mascia← S. Balalarabe

80'

Xisco García← Roberto Mateo

83'

Moreno← Colau

Collerense

Ibiza

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Espadas

16'▲Sergi Garcés←▼T. Flores

70'▲Sergio Sanz←▼Jose Custodio

80'▲Xisco García←▼Roberto Mateo

Collerense substitutes

GarcésSanzGarcía

Manager: José Pérez

72'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Onofre Riera

76'▲F. Mascia←▼S. Balalarabe

83'▲Moreno←▼Colau

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RamónMasciaMoreno

Match Recap: Collerense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Collerense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 29, 2020.

Goals: S. Balalarabe (4', 72').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.

Collerense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Collerense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas