Iberia 1–1 San Marcos de Arica: Result & Stats

Iberia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

San Marcos de Arica

6/5/2022

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iberia36%

×Draw29%

San Marcos de Arica36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IberiaExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos de Arica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

Iberia

1.11

San Marcos de Arica

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 11 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.22

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Iberia

1.22

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

allows per match

Iberia

1.22

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

San Marcos de Arica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Iberia or draw

64%

Iberia or San Marcos de Arica

71%

Draw or San Marcos de Arica

64%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+

14%

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals

67%

Iberia 2+ goals

30%

Iberia 3+ goals

10%

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

67%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

30%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)

50%

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.00 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Iberia scores more

36%

level

29%

San Marcos de Arica scores more

36%

Iberia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff