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Iberia vs Rodelindo Román — Segunda División 2020

Iberia
Iberia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rodelindo Román
Rodelindo Román
8/14/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Iberia41%
×Draw26%
Rodelindo Román33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iberia
1.43
Rodelindo Román
1.25

Iberia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 22 away

creates per match

Iberia
1.22
Rodelindo Román
1.27

allows per match

Iberia
1.22
Rodelindo Román
1.64

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par
Rodelindo Román+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

Rodelindo Román →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Iberia or draw
67%
Iberia or Rodelindo Román
74%
Draw or Rodelindo Román
59%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+
20%
Rodelindo Román wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals
76%
Iberia 2+ goals
42%
Iberia 3+ goals
17%
Rodelindo Román 1+ goals
71%
Rodelindo Román 2+ goals
36%
Rodelindo Román 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)
56%
Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

Rodelindo Román away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rodelindo Román attack 1.27 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Iberia scores more
41%
level
26%
Rodelindo Román scores more
33%

Iberia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iberia vs Rodelindo Román

Iberia and Rodelindo Román drew 2-2 in Segunda División on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles in Los Ángeles.