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Iberia vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Iberia
Iberia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
11/7/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Estadio Municipal Alberto Larraguibel Morales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Iberia42%
×Draw27%
Lautaro de Buin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iberia
1.37
Lautaro de Buin
1.16

Iberia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

creates per match

Iberia
1.22
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

Iberia
1.22
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iberia or draw
68%
Iberia or Lautaro de Buin
73%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
58%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+
19%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals
75%
Iberia 2+ goals
40%
Iberia 3+ goals
16%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
69%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
32%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)
57%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Iberia scores more
42%
level
27%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
32%

Iberia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iberia vs Lautaro de Buin

Lautaro de Buin beat Iberia 3-2 in Segunda División on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alberto Larraguibel Morales in Angol.