Iberia 0–2 Deportes Temuco: Result & Stats

Iberia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Temuco

3/27/2022

Copa Chile · 2nd RoundEstadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iberia23%

×Draw29%

Deportes Temuco48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IberiaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Temuco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.27

Iberia

0.79

Deportes Temuco

1.27

Deportes Temuco creates 61% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

0.25

creates per match

0.78

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Iberia

0.25

Deportes Temuco

0.78

allows per match

Iberia

1.75

Deportes Temuco

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par

Deportes Temuco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

Deportes Temuco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Iberia or draw

52%

Iberia or Deportes Temuco

71%

Draw or Deportes Temuco

77%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+

7%

Deportes Temuco wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals

55%

Iberia 2+ goals

19%

Iberia 3+ goals

5%

Deportes Temuco 1+ goals

72%

Deportes Temuco 2+ goals

36%

Deportes Temuco 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)

33%

Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Deportes Temuco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 0.25 + Deportes Temuco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Deportes Temuco attack 0.78 + Iberia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Iberia scores more

23%

level

29%

Deportes Temuco scores more

48%

Deportes Temuco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportes Temuco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff