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Iberia vs Colina — Segunda División 2020

Iberia
Iberia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Colina
Colina
11/18/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Iberia43%
×Draw28%
Colina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iberia
1.32
Colina
1.02

Iberia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Iberia
1.22
Colina
0.82

allows per match

Iberia
1.22
Colina
1.43

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par
Colina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

Colina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Iberia or draw
71%
Iberia or Colina
72%
Draw or Colina
57%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+
20%
Colina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals
73%
Iberia 2+ goals
38%
Iberia 3+ goals
15%
Colina 1+ goals
64%
Colina 2+ goals
27%
Colina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)
60%
Colina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

Colina away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + Colina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Colina attack 0.82 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Iberia scores more
43%
level
28%
Colina scores more
29%

Iberia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Iberia 0–2 Colina

Colina beat Iberia 2-0 in Segunda División on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker in Temuco.