Iberia Tbilisi 0–3 Saburtalo II: Result & Stats

Iberia Tbilisi

0 – 3

Saburtalo II

7/6/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iberia Tbilisi18%

×Draw18%

Saburtalo II64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iberia TbilisiExpected goals in this matchSaburtalo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.50

Iberia Tbilisi

1.27

Saburtalo II

2.50

Saburtalo II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

3.00

2.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Iberia Tbilisi

1.33

Saburtalo II

3.00

allows per match

Iberia Tbilisi

2.00

Saburtalo II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iberia Tbilisi+0.00on par

Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia Tbilisi ↓

Saburtalo II →

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Iberia Tbilisi or draw

36%

Iberia Tbilisi or Saburtalo II

82%

Draw or Saburtalo II

82%

Winning margin

Iberia Tbilisi wins by 2+

Saburtalo II wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Iberia Tbilisi 1+ goals

72%

Iberia Tbilisi 2+ goals

36%

Iberia Tbilisi 3+ goals

14%

Saburtalo II 1+ goals

92%

Saburtalo II 2+ goals

71%

Saburtalo II 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Iberia Tbilisi (draw refunded)

22%

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Iberia Tbilisi at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Iberia Tbilisi attack 1.33 + Saburtalo II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Saburtalo II attack 3.00 + Iberia Tbilisi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Iberia Tbilisi scores more

18%

level

18%

Saburtalo II scores more

64%

Saburtalo II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff