Ibarra 0–3 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Ibarra

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Villa Santa Brígida

10/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ibarra43%

×Draw27%

Villa Santa Brígida29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarraExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.05

Ibarra

1.34

Villa Santa Brígida

1.05

Ibarra creates 28% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 109 away

1.18

creates per match

0.96

1.14

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Ibarra

1.18

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Ibarra

1.14

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw

71%

Ibarra or Villa Santa Brígida

73%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

57%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+

20%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals

74%

Ibarra 2+ goals

39%

Ibarra 3+ goals

15%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

65%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

28%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)

60%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.34

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ibarra scores more

43%

level

27%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

29%

Ibarra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 0–3 Villa Santa Brígida

Villa Santa Brígida beat Ibarra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.

Ibarra vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 0–3 Villa Santa Brígida