Ibarra 0–2 Unión Viera: Result & Stats

Ibarra

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Unión Viera

10/12/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ibarra50%

×Draw26%

Unión Viera24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarraExpected goals in this matchUnión Viera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.00

Ibarra

1.55

Unión Viera

1.00

Ibarra creates 55% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

1.18

creates per match

0.87

1.14

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Ibarra

1.18

Unión Viera

0.87

allows per match

Ibarra

1.14

Unión Viera

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par

Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Unión Viera →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw

76%

Ibarra or Unión Viera

74%

Draw or Unión Viera

50%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+

26%

Unión Viera wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals

79%

Ibarra 2+ goals

46%

Ibarra 3+ goals

20%

Unión Viera 1+ goals

63%

Unión Viera 2+ goals

26%

Unión Viera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)

67%

Unión Viera (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ibarra scores more

50%

level

26%

Unión Viera scores more

24%

Ibarra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff