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Ibarra vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Ibarra
Ibarra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
1/20/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ibarra44%
×Draw27%
Santa Úrsula28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibarra
1.35
Santa Úrsula
1.02

Ibarra creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 92 away

creates per match

Ibarra
1.18
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Ibarra
1.14
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw
72%
Ibarra or Santa Úrsula
73%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
56%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+
21%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals
74%
Ibarra 2+ goals
39%
Ibarra 3+ goals
15%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
64%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
27%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)
61%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ibarra scores more
44%
level
27%
Santa Úrsula scores more
28%

Ibarra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 0–2 Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Ibarra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.