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Ibarra vs San Miguel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Ibarra
Ibarra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
9/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ibarra51%
×Draw27%
San Miguel22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibarra
1.44
San Miguel
0.86

Ibarra creates 67% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ibarra
1.18
San Miguel
0.59

allows per match

Ibarra
1.14
San Miguel
1.71

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw
78%
Ibarra or San Miguel
73%
Draw or San Miguel
49%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+
25%
San Miguel wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals
76%
Ibarra 2+ goals
42%
Ibarra 3+ goals
18%
San Miguel 1+ goals
58%
San Miguel 2+ goals
21%
San Miguel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)
69%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + San Miguel defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

San Miguel attack 0.59 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ibarra scores more
51%
level
27%
San Miguel scores more
22%

Ibarra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Ibarra 1–1 San Miguel

Ibarra and San Miguel drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.