Ibarra 4–0 Gran Tarajal: Result & Stats

Ibarra

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gran Tarajal

5/12/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ibarra47%

×Draw26%

Gran Tarajal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarraExpected goals in this matchGran Tarajal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.05

Ibarra

1.46

Gran Tarajal

1.05

Ibarra creates 39% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

1.18

creates per match

0.97

1.14

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ibarra

1.18

Gran Tarajal

0.97

allows per match

Ibarra

1.14

Gran Tarajal

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Gran Tarajal →

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw

73%

Ibarra or Gran Tarajal

74%

Draw or Gran Tarajal

53%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+

23%

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals

77%

Ibarra 2+ goals

43%

Ibarra 3+ goals

18%

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

65%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

28%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)

63%

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ibarra scores more

47%

level

26%

Gran Tarajal scores more

27%

Ibarra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff