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Ibarra vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Ibarra
Ibarra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arucas
Arucas
4/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 30Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ibarra42%
×Draw27%
Arucas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibarra
1.32
Arucas
1.10

Ibarra creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 96 away

creates per match

Ibarra
1.18
Arucas
1.06

allows per match

Ibarra
1.14
Arucas
1.46

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par
Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Arucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw
69%
Ibarra or Arucas
73%
Draw or Arucas
58%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+
19%
Arucas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals
73%
Ibarra 2+ goals
38%
Ibarra 3+ goals
15%
Arucas 1+ goals
67%
Arucas 2+ goals
30%
Arucas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)
57%
Arucas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arucas attack 1.06 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ibarra scores more
42%
level
27%
Arucas scores more
31%

Ibarra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ibarra 1 – 1 Arucas

Ibarra and Arucas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.