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Ibar vs Mladost DG — Second League 2019

Ibar
Ibar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
9/28/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 9Stadion Bandzovo Brdo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ibar33%
×Draw27%
Mladost DG39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibar
1.16
Mladost DG
1.29

Mladost DG creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ibar
1.29
Mladost DG
1.37

allows per match

Ibar
1.20
Mladost DG
1.02

finishing

Ibar+0.00on par
Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibar ↓

Mladost DG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ibar or draw
61%
Ibar or Mladost DG
73%
Draw or Mladost DG
67%

Winning margin

Ibar wins by 2+
14%
Mladost DG wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ibar 1+ goals
69%
Ibar 2+ goals
32%
Ibar 3+ goals
11%
Mladost DG 1+ goals
72%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
37%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ibar (draw refunded)
46%
Mladost DG (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibar attack 1.29 + Mladost DG defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mladost DG attack 1.37 + Ibar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ibar scores more
33%
level
27%
Mladost DG scores more
39%

Mladost DG at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mladost DG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ibar vs Mladost DG

Ibar and Mladost DG drew 1-1 in Second League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bandzovo Brdo in Rožaje.