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Ibar vs Lovćen — Second League 2019

Ibar
Ibar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lovćen
Lovćen
5/18/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 35Stadion Bandzovo Brdo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ibar40%
×Draw27%
Lovćen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibar
1.33
Lovćen
1.17

Ibar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

creates per match

Ibar
1.29
Lovćen
1.15

allows per match

Ibar
1.20
Lovćen
1.36

finishing

Ibar+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibar ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ibar or draw
67%
Ibar or Lovćen
73%
Draw or Lovćen
60%

Winning margin

Ibar wins by 2+
18%
Lovćen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ibar 1+ goals
74%
Ibar 2+ goals
38%
Ibar 3+ goals
15%
Lovćen 1+ goals
69%
Lovćen 2+ goals
33%
Lovćen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ibar (draw refunded)
55%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibar attack 1.29 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Ibar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ibar scores more
40%
level
27%
Lovćen scores more
33%

Ibar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ibar 0–1 Lovćen

Lovćen beat Ibar 1-0 in Second League on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bandzovo Brdo in Rožaje.