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Ibar vs Bokelj — Second League 2019

Ibar
Ibar
CANC
15:30
Bokelj
Bokelj
7/15/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ibar32%
×Draw28%
Bokelj39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibar
1.06
Bokelj
1.21

Bokelj creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 86 away

creates per match

Ibar
1.29
Bokelj
1.22

allows per match

Ibar
1.20
Bokelj
0.83

finishing

Ibar+0.00on par
Bokelj+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibar ↓

Bokelj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ibar or draw
61%
Ibar or Bokelj
72%
Draw or Bokelj
68%

Winning margin

Ibar wins by 2+
12%
Bokelj wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ibar 1+ goals
65%
Ibar 2+ goals
29%
Ibar 3+ goals
9%
Bokelj 1+ goals
70%
Bokelj 2+ goals
34%
Bokelj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ibar (draw refunded)
45%
Bokelj (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Bokelj away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibar attack 1.29 + Bokelj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bokelj attack 1.22 + Ibar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ibar scores more
32%
level
28%
Bokelj scores more
39%

Bokelj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bokelj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ibar host Bokelj

July 15, 2020: Ibar take on Bokelj in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.