Ibar 0–2 Arsenal Tivat: Result & Stats

Ibar

FT

0 – 2

Arsenal Tivat

8/23/2020

Second League · Round 1Stadion Bandzovo Brdo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ibar38%

×Draw27%

Arsenal Tivat35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tivat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.20

Ibar

1.27

Arsenal Tivat

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ibar

1.29

Arsenal Tivat

1.20

allows per match

Ibar

1.20

Arsenal Tivat

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibar+0.00on par

Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibar ↓

Arsenal Tivat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ibar or draw

65%

Ibar or Arsenal Tivat

73%

Draw or Arsenal Tivat

62%

Winning margin

Ibar wins by 2+

17%

Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ibar 1+ goals

72%

Ibar 2+ goals

36%

Ibar 3+ goals

14%

Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals

70%

Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals

34%

Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ibar (draw refunded)

52%

Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibar attack 1.29 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arsenal Tivat attack 1.20 + Ibar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ibar scores more

38%

level

27%

Arsenal Tivat scores more

35%

Ibar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff