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Toplicanin Prokuplje vs Jedinstvo Bošnjace — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
CANC
00:00
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
4/8/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje51%
×Draw25%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.57
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.00

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 57% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 9 away

creates per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.47
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
0.44

allows per match

Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.56
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.67

finishing

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Bošnjace+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toplicanin Prokuplje ↓

Jedinstvo Bošnjace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Toplicanin Prokuplje or draw
76%
Toplicanin Prokuplje or Jedinstvo Bošnjace
75%
Draw or Jedinstvo Bošnjace
49%

Winning margin

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
26%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
79%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
46%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
21%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 1+ goals
63%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 2+ goals
26%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
68%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toplicanin Prokuplje at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

Jedinstvo Bošnjace away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.47 + Jedinstvo Bošnjace defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jedinstvo Bošnjace attack 0.44 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
51%
level
25%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace scores more
24%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Toplicanin Prokuplje face Jedinstvo Bošnjace (Srpska Liga - East)

Srpska Liga - East returns with Toplicanin Prokuplje hosting Jedinstvo Bošnjace. Match starts April 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.