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IAPE vs Viana / Real Codó — Maranhense - 2 2026

IAPE
IAPE
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viana / Real Codó
Viana / Real Codóadvanced
11/24/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · FinalEstádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IAPE50%
×Draw22%
Viana / Real Codó28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IAPE
1.98
Viana / Real Codó
1.45

IAPE creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

IAPE
3.75
Viana / Real Codó
2.40

allows per match

IAPE
0.50
Viana / Real Codó
0.20

finishing

IAPE+0.00on par
Viana / Real Codó+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IAPE ↓

Viana / Real Codó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

IAPE or draw
72%
IAPE or Viana / Real Codó
78%
Draw or Viana / Real Codó
50%

Winning margin

IAPE wins by 2+
28%
Viana / Real Codó wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IAPE 1+ goals
86%
IAPE 2+ goals
59%
IAPE 3+ goals
31%
Viana / Real Codó 1+ goals
77%
Viana / Real Codó 2+ goals
42%
Viana / Real Codó 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

IAPE (draw refunded)
64%
Viana / Real Codó (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IAPE at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Viana / Real Codó away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IAPE attack 3.75 + Viana / Real Codó defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

Viana / Real Codó attack 2.40 + IAPE defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IAPE scores more
50%
level
22%
Viana / Real Codó scores more
28%

IAPE at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: IAPE 0–0 Viana / Real Codó

IAPE and Viana / Real Codó drew 0-0 in Maranhense - 2 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.