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IAPE vs Tupan — Maranhense - 2 2026

IAPE
IAPE
FT
3 – 0
Tupan
Tupan
10/29/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IAPE81%
×Draw12%
Tupan7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IAPE
3.13
Tupan
0.88

IAPE creates 256% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

IAPE
3.75
Tupan
1.25

allows per match

IAPE
0.50
Tupan
2.50

finishing

IAPE+0.00on par
Tupan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IAPE ↓

Tupan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

IAPE or draw
93%
IAPE or Tupan
88%
Draw or Tupan
19%

Winning margin

IAPE wins by 2+
62%
Tupan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

IAPE 1+ goals
95%
IAPE 2+ goals
81%
IAPE 3+ goals
59%
Tupan 1+ goals
59%
Tupan 2+ goals
22%
Tupan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

IAPE (draw refunded)
92%
Tupan (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IAPE at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Tupan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IAPE attack 3.75 + Tupan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.13

Tupan attack 1.25 + IAPE defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

IAPE scores more
81%
level
12%
Tupan scores more
7%

IAPE at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IAPE 3 – 0 Tupan

IAPE beat Tupan 3-0 in Maranhense - 2 on October 29, 2024.