IA Akranes vs Vikingur Reykjavik — Úrvalsdeild 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 72+ matches
IA Akranes31%
Vikingur Reykjavik46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vikingur Reykjavik creates 24% more chances
Season form · 72 home / 94 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
IA Akranes ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
IA Akranes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches
Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
IA Akranes attack 1.67 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47
Vikingur Reykjavik attack 1.99 + IA Akranes defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Vikingur Reykjavik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
IA Akranes substitutes
Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
IA Akranes host Vikingur Reykjavik on Sunday, 17 August 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027 season.
Úrvalsdeild: IA Akranes 0–1 Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik beat IA Akranes 1-0 in Úrvalsdeild on August 17, 2025.
Goals: O. Borgthorsson (49').
The match was played at ELKEM völlurinn in Akranes.