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IA Akranes vs Valur Reykjavik — League #168 2026

IA Akranes
IA Akranes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
J. Vall 35'
P. Pedersen 79' (pen)
2/15/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 2Akraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

IA Akranes59%
×Draw22%
Valur Reykjavik19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IA Akranes
1.90
Valur Reykjavik
0.97

IA Akranes creates 96% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

IA Akranes
1.80
Valur Reykjavik
1.33

allows per match

IA Akranes
0.60
Valur Reykjavik
2.00

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par
Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

Valur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw
81%
IA Akranes or Valur Reykjavik
78%
Draw or Valur Reykjavik
41%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+
35%
Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals
85%
IA Akranes 2+ goals
56%
IA Akranes 3+ goals
29%
Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals
62%
Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals
25%
Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)
76%
Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Valur Reykjavik away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.80 + Valur Reykjavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Valur Reykjavik attack 1.33 + IA Akranes defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

IA Akranes scores more
59%
level
22%
Valur Reykjavik scores more
19%

IA Akranes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. Vall
43'
T. Magnusson
47'
A. Johannsson
60'
B. Heimisson
62'
S. Thorsteinsson← S. Thorsteinsson
70'
A. Skoglund← A. Skoglund
70'
H. Gunnarsson← H. Gunnarsson
74'
H. Hilmarsson← H. Hilmarsson
78'
A. Johannsson← H. Eyjolfsson
79'
P. PedersenPenalty
83'
G. Gunnarsson← G. Gunnarsson
84'
G. Sigurdsson← K. Kristjansson
88'
G. Leosson← G. Leosson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #168: IA Akranes 1–1 Valur Reykjavik

IA Akranes and Valur Reykjavik drew 1-1 in League #168 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Vall (35'), P. Pedersen (79' pen).

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.