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IA Akranes vs Tindastóll — Cup 2019

IA Akranes
IA Akranesadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
4/25/2024CupCup · Round of 32Akraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

IA Akranes59%
×Draw18%
Tindastóll23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IA Akranes
2.62
Tindastóll
1.61

IA Akranes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

IA Akranes
1.90
Tindastóll
2.33

allows per match

IA Akranes
0.90
Tindastóll
3.33

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw
77%
IA Akranes or Tindastóll
82%
Draw or Tindastóll
41%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+
38%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals
93%
IA Akranes 2+ goals
73%
IA Akranes 3+ goals
48%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
80%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
48%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)
72%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.90 + Tindastóll defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.62

Tindastóll attack 2.33 + IA Akranes defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

IA Akranes scores more
59%
level
18%
Tindastóll scores more
23%

IA Akranes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IA Akranes vs Tindastóll

IA Akranes beat Tindastóll 3-0 in Cup on April 25, 2024.

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.