IA Akranes 1–0 KR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

IA Akranes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KR Reykjavik

I. Gudjonsson 70'

7/14/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 15ELKEM völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

IA Akranes40%

×Draw22%

KR Reykjavik38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IA AkranesExpected goals in this matchKR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.84

IA Akranes

1.89

KR Reykjavik

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

1.33

creates per match

2.16

1.52

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

IA Akranes

1.33

KR Reykjavik

2.16

allows per match

IA Akranes

1.52

KR Reykjavik

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

KR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw

62%

IA Akranes or KR Reykjavik

78%

Draw or KR Reykjavik

60%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+

21%

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals

85%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

56%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

29%

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

84%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

55%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

51%

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

KR Reykjavik away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.33 + KR Reykjavik defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

KR Reykjavik attack 2.16 + IA Akranes defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IA Akranes scores more

40%

level

22%

KR Reykjavik scores more

38%

IA Akranes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

40'

44'

45'

62'

H. Haraldsson← O. Stefansson

62'

G. Gudbrandsson← J. Juliusson

66'

A. Andrason← M. Praest

69'

R. Sigurjonsson

69'

I. Gudjonsson← J. Vall

70'

I. Gudjonsson↳ R. Sigurjonsson

80'

O. Stefansson

83'

H. Sigurdsson← G. Eyjolfsson

IA

KR

12

Georgsson

22

Thordarso

3

▼

Juliusson

29

Albertsso

7

Palmason

21

▼

Eyjolfsso

23

Sigurjons

6

Sigurdars

16

▼

9

11

1

66

4

6

13

33

22

▼

Stefansso

16

A

Sigurjons

19

Vardic

9

Jonsson

3

▼

Vall

62'▲H. Haraldsson←▼O. Stefansson

69'▲I. Gudjonsson←▼J. Vall

IA Akranes substitutes

12Simonarson5Berndsen7Haraldsson8Hafsteinsson15Gunnarsson17Unnarsson18Leosson20Gudjonsson87Ellertsson

Manager: Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson

62'▲G. Gudbrandsson←▼J. Juliusson

66'▲A. Andrason←▼M. Praest

83'▲H. Sigurdsson←▼G. Eyjolfsson

KR Reykjavik substitutes

1Ingolfsson5Styrmisson14Palmason15Gudbrandsson18Thorlacius20Andrason28Sigurdsson33Ingimarsson37Gunnarsson

Match Recap: IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik

IA Akranes beat KR Reykjavik 1-0 in Úrvalsdeild on July 14, 2025.

Goals: I. Gudjonsson (70').

The match was played at ELKEM völlurinn in Akranes.

IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik