IA Akranes 0–3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar: Result & Stats

IA Akranes

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

S. Hjaltested 84', 56'

A. Hilmarsson 40'

6/1/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 10ELKEM völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IA Akranes44%

×Draw23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IA AkranesExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.44

IA Akranes

1.71

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.44

IA Akranes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.41

creates per match

1.32

1.55

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

IA Akranes

1.41

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.32

allows per match

IA Akranes

1.55

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw

67%

IA Akranes or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

77%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

56%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+

23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals

82%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

51%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

24%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

76%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

42%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

58%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.41 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.32 + IA Akranes defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IA Akranes scores more

44%

level

23%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

33%

IA Akranes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Vall← O. Stefansson

40'

A. Hilmarsson↳ V. Valor

56'

S. Hjaltested

60'

G. Unnarsson← R. Sigurjonsson

60'

I. Gudjonsson← H. Jonsson

71'

V. Thorvardarson← V. Valor

84'

S. Hjaltested↳ A. Gunnarsson

85'

B. Hlynsson← A. Gunnarsson

85'

H. Ragnarsson← S. Hjaltested

87'

G. Gunnarsson← O. Stefansson

87'

R. Vifilsson← H. Haraldsson

90'

N. Nokkvason← M. Tomic

90'

J. Mitrovic← B. Baxter

IA

IBV

1

23

2

5

26

30

A

▼

Valor

6

▼

Tomic

25

⚽

Hilmarsso

14

A

▼

Gunnarsso

10

⚽2

▼

Hjalteste

45

▼

1

13

66

4

▼

Jonsson

6

▼

Stefansso

5

Berndsen

16

▼

Sigurjons

19

Vardic

7

▼

Haraldsso

22

▼

Stefansso

9

Jonsson

37'▲J. Vall←▼O. Stefansson

60'▲G. Unnarsson←▼R. Sigurjonsson

60'▲I. Gudjonsson←▼H. Jonsson

87'▲G. Gunnarsson←▼O. Stefansson

87'▲R. Vifilsson←▼H. Haraldsson

IA Akranes substitutes

12Simonarson3Vall15Gunnarsson17Unnarsson18Leosson20Gudjonsson23Vifilsson33Agustsson77Hauksson

Manager: Þorlákur Már Arnason

71'▲V. Thorvardarson←▼V. Valor

85'▲B. Hlynsson←▼A. Gunnarsson

85'▲H. Ragnarsson←▼S. Hjaltested

90'▲N. Nokkvason←▼M. Tomic

90'▲J. Mitrovic←▼B. Baxter

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

31Arnarsson4Nokkvason8Gunnarsson11Thorvardarson21Hlynsson24Ragnarsson44Mitrovic