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IA Akranes vs Grindavik — League #168 2026

IA Akranes
IA Akranes
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grindavik
Grindavik
Unknown 81'
G. Gunnarsson 68'
H. Hardarson 25'
2/20/2025League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 3Akraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

IA Akranes74%
×Draw16%
Grindavik10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IA Akranes
2.50
Grindavik
0.80

IA Akranes creates 213% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

IA Akranes
1.80
Grindavik
1.00

allows per match

IA Akranes
0.60
Grindavik
3.20

finishing

IA Akranes+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IA Akranes ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

IA Akranes or draw
90%
IA Akranes or Grindavik
84%
Draw or Grindavik
26%

Winning margin

IA Akranes wins by 2+
52%
Grindavik wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

IA Akranes 1+ goals
92%
IA Akranes 2+ goals
71%
IA Akranes 3+ goals
45%
Grindavik 1+ goals
55%
Grindavik 2+ goals
19%
Grindavik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

IA Akranes (draw refunded)
88%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IA Akranes at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IA Akranes attack 1.80 + Grindavik defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Grindavik attack 1.00 + IA Akranes defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

IA Akranes scores more
74%
level
16%
Grindavik scores more
10%

IA Akranes at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
H. Hardarson
46'
O. Stefansson← H. Haraldsson
46'
R. Sigurjonsson← H. Hilmarsson
46'
F. F. Gudmundsson← F. F. Gudmundsson
46'
A. Robertsson← A. Robertsson
46'
V. Hauksson← V. Hauksson
55'
G. Leosson← G. Leosson
60'
A. Heimisson
60'
M. Thorfinnsson← M. Thorfinnsson
60'
A. Hafsteinsson← G. Gunnarsson
67'
A. Agustsson← A. Agustsson
68'
G. Gunnarsson
74'
S. S. Asgeirsson
75'
A. Hammer← A. Hammer
79'
E. Eythorsson← E. Eythorsson
81'
82'
B. H. Samuelsson← B. H. Samuelsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IA Akranes vs Grindavik

IA Akranes beat Grindavik 3-0 in League #168 on February 20, 2025.

Goals: H. Hardarson (25'), G. Gunnarsson (68'), ? (81').

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.