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HyPS vs TuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

HyPS
HyPS
FT
3 – 4
TuPS
TuPS
3/22/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundVilla Park tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HyPS27%
×Draw19%
TuPS54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HyPS
1.83
TuPS
2.60

TuPS creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

HyPS
2.67
TuPS
2.88

allows per match

HyPS
2.33
TuPS
1.00

finishing

HyPS+0.00on par
TuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HyPS ↓

TuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

HyPS or draw
46%
HyPS or TuPS
81%
Draw or TuPS
73%

Winning margin

HyPS wins by 2+
13%
TuPS wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

HyPS 1+ goals
84%
HyPS 2+ goals
54%
HyPS 3+ goals
28%
TuPS 1+ goals
92%
TuPS 2+ goals
73%
TuPS 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

HyPS (draw refunded)
33%
TuPS (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HyPS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

TuPS away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HyPS attack 2.67 + TuPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

TuPS attack 2.88 + HyPS defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

HyPS scores more
27%
level
19%
TuPS scores more
54%

TuPS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HyPS vs TuPS

TuPS beat HyPS 4-3 in Suomen Cup on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Villa Park tekonurmi in Hyvinkää.